The birth rate is declining in the U.S. Due to a variety of cultural shifts in America and rising inflation, numerous people have chosen to have children later in life. While this change may not be producing profound results, it is predicted the future of both the workforce and the economy will be severely harmed.
There will be fewer economically active people to fund healthcare and welfare systems. According to econfact.org, both systems are public and funded through tax revenue. It is the public’s responsibility to pay for the infrastructure of these systems. Without this funding, however, health and welfare services will be inoperable, or be of poor quality. If the birth rate continues to decline, the following population will be significantly smaller than the one present, meaning there will not be enough people taxed to cover the cost. To tax citizens alongside high inflation rates and tax rates will only prove futile. Subsequently, the fiscal pressure on the government will be immense and inevitably inundate the country, resulting in the collapse of both welfare and medical services.
There will be an older and smaller workforce, devastating the U.S. economy. The Northeast ADA Center reported on the predicted U.S. workforce, where as baby boomers age out of it, they are replaced by a baby bust. As of recently, older generations have been working later to make up for the lack of experience and numbers that reside in their workplaces.
With the population growing smaller and immigration rates steadily declining, older workers will be forced to grow older and work longer. The ratio in the 1960s of 6:1 in terms of those of working age to those retired has drastically shifted. Now that ratio is 3:1, and by 2035 will become 2:1.
The government will have to allocate more funds to pensions and less revenue received from young people to pay income taxes, thrusting the U.S. into a period of secular stagnation. Furthermore, the spending on education for youth will likely decrease, as the money is used to support the aging population, resulting in lesser-educated individuals entering the workforce and further dependence on the elderly.
As the birth rate continues to decline, innovation will gradually decrease. According to Forbes, youth in society provide new ideas, and cultural shifts are all-important by-products of new generations. As each generation follows in the footsteps of the preceding ones, they are able to cultivate new ideas and become more aware of the world around them.
Without a next generation, no society will be able to advance and without advancement, no society can flourish. The U.S. in particular is a society that has been built on a foundation of diversity and growth, even being commonly referred to as a country of innovation and opportunity. As the population dwindles, growth will be near impossible and without people to develop new ideas, innovation will become increasingly difficult to achieve.
Of all the states, California in particular will be heavily affected. An article by Pandemic Policymaking and Changed Outcomes in Criminal Courts stated that California’s birth rate has reached an all-time low. The population decreased from 613,000 in 1992, to 420,000 in 19 years, both an impressive and daunting decrease. California is a state highly dependent on the individuals who live there, and in the past, has made up for small losses in population growth through immigration. Immigration rates, however, have been in decline and the effects of the lessening birth rate will be difficult to handle.
The predicted effects are an extreme workforce shortage and a large economic gap between the wealthy and the poor. California is already beginning to feel the effects of this decline as the number of public school attendees are waning. As the decrease continues, California will begin to feel the adverse impact of the decline.
Despite the negatives of the birth decline, there are a few positives that may follow it. According to economicshelp.org, the decreasing birth rate may benefit the rights of women in America. As birth rates fall, less women will be burdened with childcare and thus more women will be given the opportunity to further pursue their education. Sexism, a common trope in history, has limited the options for numerous women and forced them into maternity roles, preventing them from truly following their dreams. As society has progressed and childcare has become more of a choice, women have been free to do as they wish with their lives. At the expense of the U.S. population, women have flourished and have taken remarkable steps toward reaching a goal for gender equality.
The declining birth rate in the U.S. is severe and will have long-lasting effects on the country. Ultimately, the U.S. is in dire need of certain changes in both the economy and its people’s personal welfare as, at this rate, the population will slowly but surely dwindle down to dangerously low levels.